How this calculator works
The 2008 general CVD model includes coronary events, stroke/TIA, peripheral artery disease and heart failure. It was developed for ages 30 to 74 without baseline CVD. The calculation uses natural logarithms of age, total cholesterol, HDL and systolic pressure, plus binary smoking and diabetes terms. Blood-pressure treatment chooses the SBP coefficient. Results are model estimates, not guarantees or treatment recommendations; this historical model is distinct from newer ASCVD or PREVENT models. The result is an estimate for information only and is not medical advice.
Formula
Risk = 1 - S₀^exp(sum - mean). Male coefficients for ln(age), ln(TC), ln(HDL), ln(SBP untreated/treated), smoking and diabetes: 3.06117, 1.12370, -0.93263, 1.93303/1.99881, 0.65451, 0.57367; S₀=0.88936, mean=23.9802. Female: 2.32888, 1.20904, -0.70833, 2.76157/2.82263, 0.52873, 0.69154; S₀=0.95012, mean=26.1931. Cholesterol in mg/dL; mmol/L ×38.67.
Worked example
An untreated, nonsmoking 50-year-old man without diabetes, total cholesterol 200 mg/dL, HDL 50 mg/dL and SBP 120 mmHg has estimated 10-year risk about 7.24%. The corresponding female estimate is about 4.00%.
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Frequently asked questions
Is this the same outcome as hard coronary risk?
No. General CVD includes more outcomes than MI and coronary death.
Can I use it after an MI?
No. This primary-prevention model was developed for people without baseline CVD.
Why use sex-specific equations?
The original paper fitted separate male and female models. These categories reflect the study design and do not capture all individual variation.