How this calculator works
The astronomy Drake equation multiplies a series of fractions, each describing how many stars could host communicating life. The love version uses the same structure with a population and a chain of filters: the share whose gender you are interested in, the share in your age range, the share who are single, the share you find attractive, the share who would find you attractive, and any education or values filter you care about. Multiplying the population by all the shares gives the number of potential matches in the area. Multiplying the new people you meet each year by the same shares gives an expected number of possible matches, and the chance of meeting at least one in a year follows from the Poisson model for independent meetings.
Formula
Eligible people = population x share whose gender you want x share in your age range x share single x share you find attractive x share who find you attractive x share with your education or values filter. Matches met per year = new people met per year x the same product. Years between matches = 1 / matches per year. Chance of at least one in a year = 1 - e^(-matches per year).
Worked example
From a population of one million, if half match your preference, a fifth are in your age range, 45 percent are single, and a tenth of those pass each attractiveness filter, with 30 percent meeting your education filter, the fractions multiply to 0.000135, or about 135 people. Meeting 500 new people a year gives 0.0675 potential matches a year, about one every 14.8 years, and a 6.5 percent chance of at least one in the next year.
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Frequently asked questions
Is this a serious prediction about my love life?
No. It is a deliberately simplified model that treats meeting people as random and treats each filter as independent. Real relationships depend on context, timing and repeated contact, none of which the model sees. Treat the result as a way to think about how restrictive a filter chain is, not as a forecast.
Why does the answer change so sharply when I tweak one share?
The factors multiply, so each percentage compounds with the others. Lowering every filter by a third cuts the result to about a fifth. The lesson is that a long chain of narrow filters leaves very few people even in a large population.
What does the chance of meeting one in a year mean?
It is the probability that a year brings at least one match at your average meeting rate, assuming matches arrive independently. At low rates it is close to the expected number per year; at high rates it approaches 100 percent because the chance of going a whole year with none becomes tiny.
How should I choose the shares?
Use honest local numbers where you can, such as the share who are single from a national statistics agency, and be conservative about attraction, which is the filter people most often overestimate. If one filter does not matter to you, set it to 100 percent rather than guessing a low value.