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Margin of error calculator

Select the estimation model and confidence level. The margin describes sampling uncertainty under the chosen sampling assumptions.

Calculator

Margin of error (response units; fraction for proportions)
1.959964
Standard error after correction
1.000000
Critical magnitude
1.959964
Finite-population factor
1.000000
Confidence level
95.000000%

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How this calculator works

A central confidence interval extends a critical multiple of the standard error on each side of an estimate. Known population SD uses a normal critical value; an estimated SD for a normal mean uses a t value with n - 1 degrees of freedom. The proportion option is the simple Wald approximation, which can fail near zero or one. Enter population size 0 to omit finite correction. For known population SD or proportions, the correction uses divisor N; a sample-SD t margin uses sqrt(1 - n/N). Reverse proportion modes solve sample size, confidence, both compatible proportions, population size or a success count. A census has zero sampling margin, though measurement and non-response error can remain.

Formula

E = critical × SE; mean SE = SD/√n; proportion SE = √(p(1 - p)/n). Finite factor = √((N - n)/(N - 1)) for population SD or proportions; √(1 - n/N) for a sample-SD mean margin. Inverting p(1 - p) gives two proportion solutions.

Worked example

At 95% confidence, known SD 10 and n = 100 give margin 1.959964. A proportion 0.5 with n = 100 gives a Wald margin about 0.0979982, or 9.79982 percentage points.

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Frequently asked questions

Does this cover every source of survey error?

No. Sampling margins do not include selection bias, measurement error or non-response bias.

Which SD convention does finite correction use?

Known population SD and proportion modes use sqrt((N - n)/(N - 1)). The sample-SD t mode uses sqrt(1 - n/N), matching a variance estimate with divisor n - 1.

Why can a proportion margin be zero at an endpoint?

The Wald plug-in standard error vanishes at p = 0 or 1. That does not establish certainty; prefer Wilson or exact intervals for such data.

Sources

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