How this calculator works
Multiply the stake by decimal odds for the gross return. Subtract the stake to isolate profit, then subtract commission from that profit. Reverse mode divides a target net profit by the net profit per dollar staked. The settlement table exposes each amount. Probability and count inputs produce equivalent fair quotes; a quoted market price instead gives a raw implied probability. Streak calculations use independent identical win chances and exclude pushes or void bets.
Formula
Gross profit = stake x (D - 1). Net profit = stake x (D - 1) x (1 - commission). Return = stake + net profit. After-fee break-even win rate = 1/[1 + (D - 1)(1 - commission)].
Worked example
A $20 stake at 2.50 earns $30 before fees. A 10% commission on that profit costs $3, leaving $27 net profit and a $47 return. The after-fee break-even win rate is 20/47, about 42.55%.
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Frequently asked questions
Why does 2.50 pay only 1.50 times the stake as profit?
The quoted 2.50 includes one unit of returned stake. Only the remaining 1.50 units are profit.
Can I enter a desired profit instead of a stake?
Yes. Choose the target-profit calculation. A quote of 1 or a 100% commission leaves no positive profit per dollar, so that reverse calculation is undefined.
Does the implied probability predict the outcome?
It is a price conversion. Market margin and fees can separate that value from an evidence-based event probability. The break-even calculation assumes the whole stake is lost on a loss.
Are different currencies converted?
Amounts are CAD. The engine has no live foreign-exchange conversion; enter stake and profit amounts consistently in CAD.