How this calculator works
The six clinical and pathological factors receive different points for recurrence and progression. Scores map to the original 2006 tables for stage Ta/T1 disease after resection. The model uses WHO 1973 grade, not a direct substitution of modern low/high grade. Treatment patterns in the source trials differ from current care, particularly maintenance BCG, so the historical risks may be poorly calibrated for an individual today. The result is an estimate for information only and is not medical advice.
Formula
Add the factor points in Table 5 of Sylvester et al. Recurrence: count 0/3/6; size 0/3; prior recurrence 0/2/4; Ta/T1 0/1; CIS 0/1; grade G1/G2/G3 0/1/2. Progression: 0/3/3, 0/3, 0/2/2, 0/4, 0/6, 0/0/5. Recurrence score groups 0, 1-4, 5-9, 10-17 map to 1-year/5-year risks 15/31%, 24/46%, 38/62%, 61/78%. Progression groups 0, 2-6, 7-13, 14-23 map to 0.2/0.8%, 1/6%, 5/17%, 17/45%. A progression score of 1 is unattainable.
Worked example
The paper example has three small recurrent Ta G1 tumours, no CIS, and at most one recurrence per year. Recurrence and progression scores are both 3 + 2 = 5: risks are 38% and 62% for recurrence, 1% and 6% for progression at 1 and 5 years.
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Frequently asked questions
Is progression the same as recurrence?
No. Recurrence is another bladder tumour; the progression endpoint concerns progression to muscle-invasive disease.
Can I enter modern high grade as G3?
Do not assume an automatic mapping. Use the grading information required by the original model with pathological advice.
Does the calculator recommend treatment?
No. Treatment history, newer risk models and specialist assessment are needed to choose management.